Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
